Why the latest TikTok ban attempt is different — and what it means for marketers

TikTok is again within the scorching seat — not that it ever actually left — once more dealing with threats of a nationwide ban within the U.S. underneath a proposed invoice now within the arms of the Senate. The invoice, which might drive a sale of the app if it needs to stay within the area, raises questions of how an evolving social media panorama may play into TikTok’s destiny and what the affect could also be for entrepreneurs.

The most recent invoice in opposition to TikTok comes because the ByteDance-owned platform continues to stoke nationwide safety considerations stemming from its Chinese language possession and dealing with of U.S. knowledge. The invoice, dubbed the Defending Individuals from International Adversary Managed Functions Act, was handed quickly by the Home in a landslide 352-65 vote final week and now heads to the Senate. If the invoice progresses, President Joe Biden has already said that he would signal it into legislation, giving TikTok 165 days to promote or be banned within the U.S.

“The invoice’s development to the Senate with the overwhelming assist from the Home and as Biden has voiced that he backs the invoice is what makes this one really feel extra actual — but it surely’s nonetheless not time to panic,” stated Ed East, co-founder and group CEO of Billion Greenback Boy, in emailed feedback. East famous that finally, he doesn’t count on a complete ban to enter impact on condition that the Senate’s determination continues to be up within the air and TikTok would have time to promote if the invoice turns into legislation. 

Whereas the Senate has additionally indicated that there shall be some down time earlier than a choice is made, questions have understandably surfaced as to what makes this ban try completely different, who may stand to profit and the place social media advert {dollars} could shift. 

The making of a ‘good storm’

TikTok has repeatedly discovered itself in political crosshairs since its Western emergence — the app is already banned on most U.S. authorities units — however arguably essentially the most critical menace to its existence past that of the current day got here in 2020 underneath former President Donald Trump, who tried to ban the app through a since-revoked govt order. On the time, a number of events hoping to purchase the app got here ahead, together with Microsoft, Walmart and Texas-based tech agency Oracle, which now helps retailer U.S. TikToker knowledge. Trump has since modified his stance and are available out in opposition to the present push for a ban.

Whereas the most recent ban try is in some methods paying homage to these of the previous, the important thing distinction within the present debate is the passing of time, which has allowed for a wider consciousness and aperture across the points surrounding TikTok, in keeping with Mike Proulx, vice chairman and analysis director for Forrester. The years since 2020 have seen an increase in questions round social media’s affect on facets like psychological well being, misinformation and kids’s security whereas client privateness considerations and antitrust laws have reached a boiling level. 

“All of this stuff collectively equate to the proper storm of presidency needing to take some kind of regulatory motion on the subject of social media,” Proulx stated. “That is one thing that has been brewing for a while and the situations simply occurred to be ripe for the time being for heightened motion.” 

There’s no scarcity of cases that show the rising need by the federal government to manage social media. In January, a Senate listening to discussing apps together with TikTok, Snap, Meta and X (previously Twitter) and their skill — or lack thereof — to maintain youngsters protected noticed Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. decrying to prime social executives that, “We may regulate you out of enterprise if we wished to,” portray a tense image of Congress’ present regard for the platforms.

The safety of knowledge has additionally been a hot-button matter throughout the board. Within the U.S., TikTok has tried to deal with considerations about its knowledge practices with Challenge Texas, its billion-dollar U.S. knowledge separation challenge introduced final yr. Nonetheless, damning findings in January based mostly on info from inside paperwork and present and former staff discovered that TikTok nonetheless is sharing U.S. person knowledge with its guardian firm in China, one thing that Challenge Texas was put in place to keep away from. 

Past social itself, the broader financial panorama has shifted. President Biden has been extra comfy imposing commerce sanctions on China than former President Trump. In a possible push to fight China’s makes an attempt for financial dominance, Washington might be extra prone to undergo with a TikTok ban if ByteDance refused a sale. 

Picturing a possible suitor

Although a giant “what if” stays as as to if or not the invoice banning TikTok would cross, an excellent higher hypothesis is whether or not or not ByteDance would conform to divest and if its extremely praised algorithm could be a part of the deal. In response to the information, TikTok launched an announcement claiming that “the invoice was jammed by way of for one motive: it’s a ban,” happening to say that it hopes the Senate will think about the details and notice the financial alternative supplied by the app, which touts 170 million American customers and helps 7 million small companies.

Nonetheless, a small handful of patrons have already come ahead, amongst them “Shark Tank” star and businessman Kevin O’Leary and Bobby Kotick, the previous CEO of Activision. Following the passing of the invoice by the Home final week, former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin additionally introduced that he was establishing an investor group to attempt to purchase the app. Mnuchin, who chaired the Committee on International Funding within the U.S., is the founding father of Liberty Strategic Capital, which has made various investments, together with with cybersecurity companies, angling the exec as a robust potential prospect. 

Whoever would possibly try and buy TikTok would wish lots of capital. The app, a favourite amongst youthful audiences, was final valued internally at $268 billion.

“If, and that’s capitalized in italics, ByteDance have been to determine this, there may be momentum already brewing on potential patrons due to the affect that TikTok as an app has had on tradition, society, demographics, creativity, all types of facets of each day lives for almost half of the nation,” stated Proulx.

Throughout 2020’s ban try, hopeful TikTok patrons got here ahead for numerous causes. Walmart hoped to spice up its promoting enterprise whereas Oracle wished assist bolstering its knowledge companies. TikTok within the years that adopted has matured right into a powerhouse, constructing out a robust promoting enterprise whereas additionally extending into areas like social commerce. Accordingly, curiosity from potential suitors this time round may take a brand new kind.

“The dialog may be completely different this time round than it was in 2020, when it simply appeared like a startup social community,” stated David Tiltman, senior vice chairman of content material for WARC.

U.S. promoting spend on TikTok was estimated to be $8.7 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to develop to $10.9 billion this yr, in keeping with WARC Media findings. For perspective, in 2020 and 2021, spending within the U.S. on TikTok was smaller than that for Snap, per WARC knowledge. Due to TikTok’s widespread progress, patrons may envision the app’s future in a number of methods, Tiltman famous. Along with potential curiosity round present facets of TikTok’s enterprise like commerce, he expects inquiries to rise across the app’s potential to mesh with ongoing hype round AI. 

“What’s the AI mess around TikTok? I don’t have a solution for that, however that could be a query that shall be requested,” Tiltman stated.

Given the context of the most recent ban try, it’s critically essential that any potential purchaser has each the credibility and public notion of standing for client privateness rights, in keeping with Proulx.

“It must be an organization that each the federal government and shoppers belief as an goal, trustworthy, third-party dealer within the combine, or else you find yourself buying and selling one drawback for an additional, and even worse, exacerbating the issue that already exists,” Proulx stated. 

The place the {dollars} may shift

Past regulation, social media extra broadly has developed drastically since 2020. Instagram Reels, Meta’s reply to TikTok, launched in August of that very same yr. Since then, some findings have indicated that branded video content material on Instagram Reels outperforms that on TikTok and Fb. 

If entrepreneurs have been to shift their budgets away from TikTok, Proulx believes the {dollars} would circulate to Reels. Amid the federal government’s antitrust crackdown, which will deliver with it antagonistic penalties.

“Meta turns into the benefactor in all of this, and whereas it’s good for Meta as an organization, each from the standpoint that they are going to doubtless see a fabric improve in each customers and promoting income, it now strips {the marketplace} of competitors,” Proulx stated.

Different opponents have additionally appeared, together with YouTube Shorts, which YouTube has continued working to monetize. Amongst platforms, advertisers in North America this yr plan to extend their budgets on TikTok, YouTube and Instagram, in that order, per WARC’s latest Marketer’s Toolkit findings, indicating that the latter two are the doubtless benefactors of any potential ban. 

Nonetheless, any motion in opposition to TikTok is prone to ship entrepreneurs into one thing of a scramble — 67% of U.S. B2C entrepreneurs report that their group plans to extend funding in TikTok this yr, per Forrester’s 2024 Advertising Survey. As a choice on the app looms, Proulx advises starting to plan across the potential outcomes. 

“Each marketer must be contingency planning now, and in the event that they aren’t,” Proulx stated, “they’re already behind the curve.”