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The FTSE 250 enjoyed a bright start to 2024 but the momentum has fizzled out lately.
The index of medium-sized UK companies is up 10.44% over 12 months, but it’s dropped 2.51% in the last six. It’s down 3.03% in the last month as the UK recovery slows.
While blue-chips listed on the FTSE 100 generate 75% of their earnings overseas, many investors view the FTSE 250 as a domestic affair. Yet that’s not entirely accurate. Some 46% of turnover is generated from markets outside the UK.
I think this makes it nicely balanced to take advantage both of UK and international growth opportunities.
A great time to buy cheap UK shares?
Unfortunately, the UK hasn’t been great lately. GDP growth slumped in the third quarter, to just 0.1%. The economy actually shrank 0.1% in September.
And that was before the Budget on October 30, which hit employers with additional national insurance contributions totalling £25bn. That may squeeze margins and growth from April.
With interest rates now expected to stay higher for longer, next year may be tough too. Housebuilders, retailers, pubs, restaurants, financial services and property companies are heavily represented on the index, and may struggle if rates stay high.
Yet much of the risk is priced in, with the FTSE 250 trading on an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 10.5. I’m used to it trading closer to 14 or 15 times earnings. For a long-term investor like me, I think this is a solid opportunity to hop on board. There’s just one thing holding me back.
Typically, I prefer to buy individual stocks rather than trackers. Lately, I’ve had my eye on FTSE 250-listed Keller Group (LSE: KLG). It’s a ‘geotechnical specialist contractor’, which means it lays the foundations for construction projects, and operates worldwide.
I’d rather buy shares in Keller Group
It’s the type of company that should do well when the global economy is booming, which it isn’t at the moment. On the other hand, with such a huge market to target, this £1bn company should be able to find more than enough opportunities.
It had a blistering first half, with statutory pre-tax profits jumping 121% to £95.3m and full-year performance “materially ahead” of expectations, according to its 6 August update.
I considered buying Keller on 22 September, but with its shares up 130% in a year I feared momentum might flag. I got that right as the shares have dipped 10.78% in the last month, although they’re still up 78.66% over 12 months. Is this a buying opportunity for me? I think so.
Keller relies on governments and businesses funding new infrastructure projects, which may slow in these troubled times.
On 14 November Keller said it was still on track to hit a full-year expectations but the shares dipped due to weakness in Europe. I’m now thinking the dip is a buying opportunity with a P/E ratio of just 9.5. That’s slightly below the index average. The yield has edged up to 3.03%.
I think this is a good time to consider a FTSE 250 tracker. But I think it’s an even better time for me to buy Keller Group. Which I’ll do when I’ve scraped together some cash.
